New ILO studies reveal growing impact of heat stress on jobs and productivity in six countries
The six studies, commissioned by the ILO with support from the Climate Vulnerable Forum and the Vulnerable 20 Finance Ministers (CVF-V20), with funding provided through the CVF-V20 Joint Multi-Donor Fund, provide new evidence on the current and future effects of heat stress on workers, labour markets and national economies. They also identify policy measures that can help countries protect workers and livelihoods, sustain productivity and strengthen resilience as temperatures rise.
Heat stress is already affecting the world of work
Heat stress is already affecting jobs and productivity and generating significant economic losses.
“Protecting workers from heat stress should not be viewed as an additional burden but as an investment in workers’ health, productivity and working conditions", said Marlene Attallah, Deputy Director General, Ministry of Labour, Lebanon.
Climate change is projected to cause significant job and economic losses across all six countries, with impacts worsening over time, particularly under high-emissions scenarios.
By 2040, even under a low-emissions pathway:
- Job losses could range from around 2,400 full-time equivalent jobs in the Maldives to 1.78 million in Ethiopia. Other projected losses include 21,700 jobs in Lebanon, 129,000 in Senegal, 145,000 in Sri Lanka and 550,000 in Ghana.
- Annual GDP losses could range from US$575.5 million in the Maldives to US$33.3 billion in Ethiopia, with losses also reaching US$2.6 billion in Lebanon, US$10.5 billion in Senegal, US$23.2 billion in Ghana and US$26 billion in Sri Lanka.
By 2060, under high-emissions scenarios, the impacts could be far greater:
- Job losses could range from 5,500–6,100 full-time equivalent jobs in the Maldives to 5–6 million in Ethiopia.
- Annual GDP losses could range from US$1.6–1.7 billion in the Maldives to US$79.4–310.3 billion in Ethiopia.
Building evidence for action
The studies highlight a range of measures that can help address the effects of heat stress, including occupational safety and health interventions, social protection and climate-resilient economic planning.
“Social dialogue is our best adaptation tool to heat stress. It will protect workers while reinforcing the resilience of companies”, said Alpha Dia, Professor and Researcher, National Employers' Council (CNP), Senegal.
Participants at the launch reiterated the importance of social dialogue in developing responses that reflect the needs and experiences of governments, employers, workers and affected communities.
“No worker should ever have to choose between their health and their livelihood”, said Ella Frankel, Communication and Policy, International Union of Food, Agricultural, Hotel, Restaurant, Catering, Tobacco and Allied Workers' Association (IUF).
As temperatures continue to rise, advancing a just transition and promoting decent work will be critical to ensuring that workers and enterprises can respond to changing conditions while safeguarding health, livelihoods and productivity. The ILO Guidelines for a just transition towards environmentally sustainable economies and societies for all provide a policy framework for addressing the employment and social dimensions of environmental and climate-related change.
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